Indian metros: Cancer rate to go up by 26.6 per cent

June 9, 2008
By Syed Akbar
Hyderabad, June 8: Five cities including Bangalore and Chennai will report 26.6 per cent increase in the registered number of cancer cases this year, according to Bangalore-based National Institute of Mental Health and Neuro Science.
A research work carried out by Dr P Marimuthu of NIMHANS show that 26.6 per cent increase is expected in the registered number of cancer cases in Bangalore, Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi and Bhopal. In the case of Delhi, the increase will be 52.68 per cent, the highest for any city in the country. The age adjusted analysis by NIMHANS indicates that in terms of deaths, Mumbai is experiencing the higher incidence rate among the five cities. The mortality rate for Mumbai is 50 per cent reported from the age group 55 and above years.
"The changing demographic scenario in India is declining fertility level and increasing life expectancy. As the life expectancy at birth increases proportionately the percentage of geriatric population also rises. Higher incidence of non-communicable diseases, especially cancer is positively associated with
percentage of aged population of a country. The World Cancer Report documents that cancer rates are set to increase at an alarming rate globally. Cancer rates could increase by 50 per cent new cases for the year 2020," Dr Marimuthu told this correspondent.
The Indian Council of Medical Research indicates that the age adjusted incidence of gall bladder cancer in women in New Delhi is 10.6 per 1,00,000 population, the world's highest rate for women. Thyroid cancer is more prevalent in the coastal areas of Kerala and Karnataka, while oral cancer tops the list in Andhra Pradesh, particularly Hyderabad.
Men from Delhi in the age group 65-69 may have more number of cases followed by the age group 60-64 for the year 2008. Then men from Chennai will have an increasing trend from the age of 50 to 69 years. Almost a similar trend of cancer incidence for males in the year 2008 is expected from Chennai, Bangalore and Mumbai.
He said in the female-age specific incidence, women from Delhi in the age group 50-54 may have more number of cases followed by the age group 40-44 for the year 2008. Then the females from Bangalore may have more number of cases from the age of 45 to 54 years. Almost a similar trend of cancer incidence for females in the year 2008 is
expected from Chennai, Bangalore and Mumbai.
"Though there is no variation in reported number of cases from Mumbai over the years, the standardisation gives the idea of higher incidence rate for Mumbai. After further analysis on the population data, it is found that the Mumbai
population is negatively growing from 1991 to 2001 census years, but the registered number of case is constant over the years. The decreasing population size in Mumbai and almost the same number of registered cancers cases over the years influenced the incidence rate in Mumbai," he said.
Dr Marimuthu pointed out that there is decline in the cervical cancer incidence, but this decline is very meagre. Though the cancer incidence rate in India is less than that of the Western countries but due to the large population size, number of cases is more prevalent at any time. It is shown that in India 8.7 million Disease Adjusted Life Years lost from cancer was second to ischaemic heart disease.
The NIMHANS study found that Delhi is expected to have more number of cases every year. Though the number of cases is marginally declining in Mumbai, it is experiencing higher incidence rate among these five cities. More number of cases are projected in the age group 45-55 and in the age group of 65-70 years for females and males respectively. Cancer deaths are about 3.6 per cent to the total deaths and
50 per cent cancer deaths are recorded from the age group 55 and above categories.